Reflections on the Great
Depression of 2010

15 Mar 2050


We've come a long way...

A little over 40 years ago, western financiers and their advisors were torn. On the one hand they were quietly thrilled by the audacity of recent imperial outreach work in the middle east. On the other hand, they now felt a little nervous about the scale of the transfer of wealth closer to home.

The superpower of the day had stopped reporting on the creation of money (M3). Foreign investors rightly took this to mean that too much money was being pumped into the world's financial system. Their response was to stop building dollar reserves and to stock up on euros.

Institutional investors moved money into tangible assets. Speculation raged. Land, commodity and energy prices spiked. The value of the dollar fell.

Then as the unprecedented housing boom predictably turned into an unprecedented housing bust, something shook the banks. As house prices collapsed, borrowers started to turn round and hand back the keys.

Investment vehicles froze like a startled fox in the headlights. With the banking system over-lent and barely solvent, cheap loans evaporated. Buyers vanished. Shares were hammered. And, despite the injection of hundreds of billions of dollars by central banks, trust and confidence continued to wane.

It was then that some of us started to comprehend the scale of the speculative bets being made. Oil soared to $110 barrel. Gold screamed up to $1000 an ounce.

But the fat controller was spooked, not by the end of the boom with a bust – but by the possibility of violence on the streets.

Stoking anarchy in the middle east was one thing, but Anarchy in the UK was beyond the pale. Large numbers of people were going to lose jobs, homes and businesses. Protest would grow. Administrations both sides of the atlantic sought to extend detention without charge.

From a world of wasteful abandon...

The convergence of oil depletion, resource wars, climate change and financial meltdown, saw elites turn to private security firms for succor.

The financiers were certainly not preparing to queue at the fuel pump. Ideas were floated. Depopulation? WWIII? Penury? They had already decided which they preferred.

Meanwhile we had swapped social, spiritual and sexual communion for TV dinners and pornography. Climatologists warned that the planet was about to shake us off like a bad cold, but restraint on consumption was nowhere obvious. The UK government had plans for more roads, more runways, more houses, more power plants, more... prisons.

Our hunger for domestic energy remained insatiable. Whereas the Roman might keep a horse, citizens of the West thought nothing of tethering 100 horses to their chariot.

At the turn of the century we celebrated the wizardry of city finance, the low cost of goods made in Asia, and the excessive choice provided by the [super] market.

All this cheap abundance came at a high cost. Manufacturing, mining, drilling and agriculture were fast exhausting natural resources. Only it was now happening out of sight. Unpleasantness had effectively been banished. The London smog was now Beijing's problem. This was what we meant by globalisation.

Television was a daily diet of little of any real consequence. Our daily travails kept most of us excessively busy turning cogs in government or corporate wheels. In the commercial world, profit imperative remained centre stage. Politicians repeated the mantra of never ending growth. But, all the signs were that ours was not an exemplary way to live.

Worse still, we felt disconnected. Catastrophic human losses had disoriented us. It felt like reality was being fabricated. We were hypnotised. For a while, TV became a disaster movie of terror and anthrax and viruses.

To the dawning of the real world...

During the austerity of the Great Depression of 2010, something finally dawned on a great many westerners. Our fast living fast spending overstocked supermarket of a culture was only possible thanks to the continued exploitation of foreign workers.

The one way traffic of resources had always, in fact, been based on presumptions of superiority. Now, with growing demand for resources from cash rich China, we were about to experience the reverse flow of resources. Asia would now price the meat and fish off our plates.

We looked at our reflections in the mirror and we realised how precarious our position had become. We had been carried all these years, as if on a chaise longue, by an army of foreign labourers. Carbon trading and offsetting was just another convenient deceit born of a misplaced belief in our own superior worth.

We started to recognise that our profit driven work ethos had caused errors of judgement. It had accelerated the depletion of the very resources needed for man and planet to enjoy happy continued co-existence. Convenience, we now discovered, had a counterproductive side. We had built little to last.

In fact, we had done little to resolve the fundamental issues. The most fundamental of all was the entrenched injustice stemming from the private ownership of land. The UN's 2020 Vision Development Goals raised our hopes – a debate began to unfold.

Some of us looked for examples of sustainable development. Often we found it in places reviled or even embargoed by the west – Castro's Cuba for example.

We resolved to cycle to work, eat less meat, generate our own hot water and electricity where practicable. In small ways we relearned how to do things for ourselves – how to be more self-sufficient. We grew food. We travelled less. We shared more.

We were not luddites. We eagerly anticipated the convergence of technologies - the reduction of all communications into one chip set. We loved being able to download software to take control of another aspect of our lives. We loved the wireless freedom to roam. We revelled in the ability of new fabrics, garments and prints to harness energy and insulate against heat and cold.

We began to value clean air, clean unfluoridated water, seasonality in all things. We backed up or dug new homes into hillsides and covered them in soil and grass. We aspired to clutter free lives and relearned the art of designing products which had long lives of rich utility.

We were hopeful. We took time to meditate and developed faith in humanity, because without this faith there could only be more carrots and sticks.

And carrots and sticks, we knew, were meant for donkeys.

Oil had been a remarkable gift to mankind over an entire century. Oil was gone, but there were, of course, other gifts.

Ends | 15 Mar 2008 | The Leg

comment | back to the top | thoughts



Essential Reading:
Four rules not learned from the Great Depression My Budget 360
The case for Deflation Interview with Stoneleigh of Automatic Earth
A tale of two depressions by Barry Eichengreen & Kevin O'Rourke
Bush - Before and After
UK financial crisis 2007 | 2008 - Where to next?
Too much money (UK 2006)
A Presidential Energy Policy by Michael C. Ruppert
Sustainable Energy without the Hot Air by David MacKay
Money Matters by Elaine Meinel Supkis
Austerity Britain (1945 - 1952) by David Kynastaon

Related Graphs 2010:

Graph (to July 2010): The Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) Index from 1965 to date has tended to fall steeply in advance of recession. Lowering the base interest rate has historically been the preferred tool for reviving demand (with the carrot of cheaper credit and stick of lower returns on savings). Click graph for larger version.

Chart: The Bank of England's June 2010 Financial Stability Report (p18) suggests that business as usual (ie. all green) is still some way from returning. May 2010 was the month where fears of sovereign defaults in the Eurozone caused investors to fly from risk. Faith in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities hasn't recovered. Residential Mortgage Backed Securities remain vulnerable.

Graph: The Baltic Dry index is held to be a useful guide to future demand for international shipping/trade. Plotted here against the Gold price - a form of exchange valued in times of uncertainty.

Related Articles:

2010:
6 Aug: 130,000 US job losses in July
5 Aug: US food stamp use rose to record 40.8m in May
30 Jul: Striking truckers cause Greek fuel shortage - military called
27 Jul: US oil spill sees BP posting a $17bn loss in Q2
19 Jul: Moody's downgrades Ireland's bonds to Aa2 from Aa1
12 Jul: Chinese rating agency strips US, UK & France of AAA rating
8 Jul: Delinquency rate on US $1m+ investment homes hits 23%
29 Jun: US consumer confidence plunges in June
27 Jun: Krugman fears we're at early stages of third depression
25 Jun: Baltic Dry shipping index down 40% on a month ago
25 Jun: Italy: austerity measures and general strike
24 Jun: New home sales in US sink as tax break stimulus ends
23 Jun: IFS warns UK faces worst public service cuts since WWII
23 Jun: Debt securitisation still frozen, cheap funding 'vanished'.
21 Jun: Collapse in ECRI growth indicator spells trouble ahead?
16 Jun: Spanish banks borrow 85.6bn euros from ECB in May!
10 Jun: Record 93,000 US homes repossessed in May
10 Jun: Soros - we've entered Act II of system collapse
8 Jun: May 'flash shares crash' wiped billions off Hedge funds
7 Jun: UK: austerity measures
27 May: Spanish rescue CajaSur bank showing 596m euro loss
13 May: Portugal: austerity measures
12 May: Spain: austerity measures
10 May: RBS to cut 2600 insurance and retail banking jobs
10 May: Fannie Mae seeks $8.4bn from government after loss
10 May: US bank failures - 68 so far in 2010 (total 140 in 2009)
10 May: 500bn euro bailout fund rewrites EU rulebook
9 May: 300bn euro in late payments hit European companies
7 May: Japan injects $20bn in liquidity to calm markets
6 May: Panic! Dow Jones falls 1000 points. S&P 500 down 8.6%
6 May: Is recovery producing a false sense of security?
5 May: Batten down the hatches for decade of austerity
5 May: Protests against austerity measures turn violent in Greece
29 Apr: BofE Governor anticipates an era of severe austerity?
28 Apr: S&P downgrades Greek, Portuguese & Spanish gov. debt
27 Apr: European shares fall as S&P gives Greek debt junk status
25 Apr: China becomes World Bank's third largest shareholder
22 Apr: UK public borrowing rises to £167bn in 09/10
21 Apr: UK unemployment rises to 16 year high
16 Apr: Goldman Sachs accused of subprime fraud
14 Apr: Morgan Stanley - possible $5.4bn property fund losses
15 Apr: 1 in every 138 US homeowners set to lose homes in Q1
6 Apr: US Food stamp usage rises for 14th month to record 39m
2 Apr: US longterm unemployed grows. 6.5m out of work for 27wks
1 Apr: US personal bankruptcies in March up 19% on last year
31 Mar: Eurozone unemployment rises to 10% (19% in Spain)
30 Mar: Irish banks need billions to cover bad loans
29 Mar: Ford sells Volvo Cars to China's Geely
28 Mar: Sell-off of 10 year US treasuries pushes yield over 3.9%
24 Mar: Fitch rating agency cuts Portugal's debt rating to AA-
17 Mar: Underwater US homeowners opting for 'strategic defaults'
15 Mar: Moody's fears austerity plans will test 'social cohesion'
11 Mar: Up to 60,000 take to the streets to protest in Greece
9 Mar: Chevron to cut 2000 jobs
8 Mar: US states got $87bn less in tax revenues in 12mths to Sep 09
6 Mar: Icelanders reject deal to repay foreign Icesave savers
26 Feb: AIG insurance loses $8.9bn in Q3
23 Feb: FDIC places 702 more lenders on its list of problem banks
23 Feb: Commerzbank hit by 4.5bn Euro loss
23 Feb: US consumer confidence index falls sharply in February
22 Feb: State tax collections in US continue decline despite tax hikes
14 Feb: Investors abandon high-yield corporate (junk) bonds
12 Feb: Obama signs bill to lift US debt ceiling by $1.9tn to $14.3tn
12 Feb: Big fall in foreign government purchase of US debt in Feb?
12 Feb: Like UK, Eurozone grew just 0.1% in Q4 of 2009
9 Feb: China just became world's No.1 exporter
9 Feb: 8300 Vauxhall jobs lost. Belgium, Germany and UK hit
8 Feb: Speculators make 8bn euro bet against euro
7 Feb: Virgin boss Branson flags up risk of oil crunch within 5 years
4 Feb: Spain and Portugal to join Greece in debt crisis?
4 Feb: Shell adds further 1000 job cuts to the 5000 cut in 2009
4 Feb: World oil capacity to peak in 2010 says Petrobas CEO
31 Jan: Glaxo's £1.7bn cost cutting exercise to result in job cuts
29 Jan: Crisis in Greece - gov. bond prices fall 6% in one month
28 Jan: AstraZeneca to cut further 8000 jobs
22 Jan: US stimulus is 4x value of all post war recession injections!
20 Jan: UK output fell 5% in '09, worst fall since 1931
19 Jan: Japan Airlines files for bankruptcy
13 Jan: German GDP contracted 5% in 2009 - worst post war fall
12 Jan: AOL to cut over 2500 jobs
8 Jan: Consumer credit in US down by record $17bn in November
8 Jan: California (with $20bn budget deficit) asks Fed for $6.9bn
8 Jan: Eurozone umemployment hits 10%, Spain's 19.4%
7 Jan: US personal bankcruptcy filings rose by 32% in 2009

Related Viewing:

Housing Bubble: Market Crashing? Yes, In Slow Motion.

Related Articles

2009:
24 Dec: Chinese carmaker to buy Volvo for $2bn
18 Dec: General Motors to shut down Saab
17 Dec: More Americans consider walking away from their mortgages
15 Dec: Moody's warns of 'social unrest' as sovereign debt spirals
14 Dec: Austria nationalises Hypo bank, its 6th largest bank
10 Dec: More cars will be sold in China than in the USA this year
8 Dec: A record 37.2m Americans (1 in 8) are claiming food stamps
8 Dec: Half of US small business owners see things getting worse
8 Dec: Japan unveils $80bn stimulus plan
8 Dec: Greece's credit rating downgraded sending markets down
28 Nov: Carbon offset schemes not working says holiday firm
27 Nov: NYSE invokes Rule 48 anticipating major volatility in shares?
26 Nov: Dubai World debt crisis drives FTSE 100 down by 3%
11 Nov: UK youth unemployment at 20%
6 Nov: US jobless rose to 10% in October
3 Nov: US housebuyer of 2006: "Buying the house was a mistake"
3 Nov: Johnson & Johnson to cut 8000 jobs
3 Nov: Today's energy gives US Citizen equivalent of 100 servants
1 Nov: CIT is now bankrupt, having taken £2.3bn from US Treasury
16 Oct: BoA hit by consumer mortgage and credit card defaults
15 Oct: US States' total tax income fell by 16% in Q2 - cuts required
13 Oct: Total pay for US 'production workers' falls 9 mths in a row
8 Oct: US budget deficit balloons to $1.4 trillion
7 Oct: Latvian proposal threatens foreign banks with huge losses
4 Oct: Massive debts bankrupt companies bought by private equity
30 Sep: 40% of banks' crisis losses still not accounted for in Europe?
28 Sep: US bank deposit insurer faces its own liquidity problems
28 Sep : US bank failures = 99 so far in 2009. 25 in 2008.
25 Sep: US financial sector losses on loans in '09 triple the '02 high
24 Sep: Spanish youth unemployment rises to 38%
22 Sep: Corporate insiders using rally to sell their share holdings
20 Sep: 588,000 US homebuyers handed back the keys in 2008
17 Sep: 2009 surge in individual share investors echoes DotCom era
16 Sep: OECD predicts unemployment will peak in 2010
15 Sep: IATA says Airlines face losses of $11 bn in 2009
14 Sep: US 'deflation in credit, wages and rents... a toxic brew'
14 Sep: Moody's thinks UK banks face further £130bn in losses
13 Sep: Around 12% of the world's container ships now stand idle
13 Sep: Speculation in derivatives played big part in financial crisis
4 Sep: Repayment of construction loans falters in US
4 Sep: US unemployment rose to 9.7% in August
2 Sep: Withdrawals from 2 new hedge funds barred for 3 years
31 Aug: China share index loses 6.7% in a day
28 Aug: Japanese unemployment rises to 5.7% - most since 1960
27 Aug: Fall in UK business spending - most since 1966
26 Aug: Germany concerned by fall in bank lending to business
20 Aug: China slashed its holdings of US treasuries in June?
19 Aug: After big gains Chinese share index falls 20% in two weeks
12 Aug: UK unemployment rises to 7.8%
5 Aug: Lloyds reports £4bn loss after £11bn increase in bad debts
31 July: Eurozone unemployment rose to 9.4% in June
31 July: 69 US banks shut so far in 2009, vs 25 in '08 and 3 in '07
31 July: US GDP shrank 6.4% in 12 months to March 2009
24 July: UK GDP shrank 5.6% in 12 months to June 2009
22 July: Investors shun resold commercial mortgages in US
21 July: China to shrink dollar reserves in favour of energy resources
21 July: $6bn cut in education to result from California's debt deal
20 July: US states face serious budget deficits as tax income shrinks
15 July: Factories running at 65% capacity in Japan, 69% in USA
17 July: Falling demand for GE's industrial equipment hits profits
16 July: 79,000 US homes repossessed in June. 65,000 in May
16 July: 1 in 8 Americans late on mortgage payment or in foreclosure
15 July: Record rise in UK unemployment in 3 months to May
12 July: California issues IOUs to those owned money by the state
30 June: UK economy shrinks most in 50 years in Q4 of 08/9
29 June: $24bn budget deficit forces California to issue IOUs
24 June: Europe's Central Bank props up banks with 442bn euro
15 June: Moody's downgrades Spanish banks - 17% unemployment
12 June: With 27,000 cases, swine flu is officially a pandemic
11 June: Chinese exports in May fell faster than April's
10 June: ECB lends 3bn euro to Swedish bank to save Latvia
10 June: Fed reports 'weak or deteriorating' economy in Apr-May
10 June: $ billions of Las Vegas building development put on ice
9 June: Arcandor (which owns 53% of Thomas Cook) is bankrupt
3 June: 1 in 9 Americans now dependant on federal food stamps
2 June: General Motors declares itself bankrupt
22 May: Q1 in UK: output, pay and household spending falling
22 May: Private equity snaps up collapsed Florida BankUnited
20 May: Japan's GDP shrunk by 4% in Q4
15 May: British Telecom to shed 15,000 jobs
15 May: Eurozone GDP in Q1 fell by 2.5%, Germany's by 3.8%
12 May: Advanta closes small business credit card facility
12 May: US banks end '08 with $26.6bn of repossesed property
12 May: UK unemployment rises to 7.1%
12 May: Chinese exports in April fell for the 6th month in a row
8 May: US unemployment rises to 8.9%
6 May: Gold price graph highlights continued uncertainty
5 May: Bank "bailout money going in one door and out the other"
1 May: US car sales fall to near 30 year low
25 Apr: Spanish jobless total hits 4 million
15 Apr: Swiss bank UBS to cut further 8700 jobs
9 Apr: Japan $154bn stimulus plan to boost stocks and shares
3 Apr: New deregulation lets banks inflate value of illiquid assets
3 Apr: US unemployment rises to 8.5%
2 Apr: G20 summit proposes plan for global recovery and reform
1 Apr: Irish property prices down 40% since peaking in 2006
31 Mar: $12.8tn now pledged to bail out US - equal to 2008 GDP
31 Mar: US property prices down 29% from their peak

26 Mar: Credit markets still pricing in years of absolute disaster
25 Mar: Japan's February exports down 50% on year earlier
23 Mar: $1tn plan to relieve US banks of 'assets' nobody wants
21 Mar: What crisis? Graph shows US bank borrowing from FED
15 Mar: First collective loss for listed US companies since 1935
13 Mar: Chinese worried about continued value of their US bonds
11 Mar: Chinese exports in February down 25% on a year ago
10 Mar: UK manufacturing output falling at annual rate of 12.8%
9 Mar: Top 5 US banks at risk of losing $587bn on derivatives deals
6 Mar: US unemployment rises to 8.1%
6 Mar: 670,000 small Chinese businesses close as demand shrinks
2 Mar: AIG - insurer of banks - lost $61 bn in Q4
28 Feb: Factory output is collapsing (Taiwan -43%, Japan -30%...
27 Feb: US economy shrinks at fastest rate in 25 years
26 Feb: GM's future in doubt after $31bn loss in 2008
25 Feb: Japan's exports down 45% in January
24 Feb: US home prices fell by 18.5% in the year to Dec 08

22 Feb: Graph: How the current crash shapes up historically
21 Feb: Anglo American cuts 19,000 jobs
20 Feb: FTSE 100 falls 3.2% in a day, other indexes fall
19 Feb: Bank of Japan to buy up Y1000bn of corporate bonds
19 Feb: Plan announced to prevent 9 million US repossessions
18 Feb: GM to cut 47,000 jobs - 20% of its global workforce
16 Feb: Japanese exports fell 13.9% in Q3 vs 2007
15 Feb: Austria forced to rescue Eastern Europeans it lent to
14 Feb: Congress approves $787 US economic stimulus bill
12 Feb: 4.8m Americans now claiming unemployment benefits
10 Feb: Minister says UK 'facing the worst recession in 100 years'
10 Feb: GM to cut 10,000 jobs
9 Feb: Nissan to cut 20,000 jobs worldwide
6 Feb: Icelandic Baugur retail empire goes into administration
6 Feb: 600,000 US jobs lost in January, jobless rate now 7.6%
2 Feb: Glaxosmithkline to cut 6000 jobs
31 Jan: Pfizer to cut 19,000 jobs
29 Jan: 46 US states face budget shortfalls
29 Jan: Ford made $14.6bn dollar loss in 2008
28 Jan: Western car manufacturer bailouts run into £billions
28 Jan: Boeing to cut 10,000 jobs
27 Jan: 80,000 job losses announced in one day
26 Jan: Caterpillar to cut 20,000 jobs
23 Jan: What Crisis? Graph shows US banks' borrowing from FED
22 Jan: Microsoft axes jobs for the first time - 5000 to go
20 Jan: German retailer, Metro, sheds 15,000 jobs
20 Jan: Spain's credit rating downgraded to AA+
20 Jan: Graph illustrates shrinking investor confidence in banks
17 Jan: 27 banks have failed since the start of the credit crisis
17 Jan: British banks are 'technically insolvent'
16 Jan: Citigroup reports $8bn loss for Q4 of 2008
16 Jan: US government throws Bank of America a $138 lifeline
9 Jan: US shedding jobs at fastest rate since 1945
9 Jan: Europe's economy contracts at rate not seen since 1930s
8 Jan: US debt losing its appeal in China
8 Jan: US consumer borrowing fell by $7.9bn in November
8 Jan: Obama outlines $775 US stimulus package
7 Jan: Satyam of India $1bn corporate fraud revealed
2 Jan: Austrian government take over Bank Medici after? $3bn loss

2008:

31 Dec: UK shares down 31% in '08, Russian 72%, Chinese 65%
30 Dec: Japan planning $110bn bank bail-out?
30 Dec: Japan's Nikkei 225 ends the year down by 42%
23 Dec: US house prices down 13% in last 12 months
19 Dec: Bush promises $17.4bn bailout for US carmakers
19 Dec: Oil falls below $34
17 Dec: New car sales lump across Europe - by half in Spain
17 Dec: Fed slashes interest rates to 0.25%
16 Dec: 50,000 jobs at risk in privatisation of Royal Mail
15 Dec: Hedge fund $50bn Ponzi pyramid selling fraud
14 Dec: Pound crash. £1 buys you less than 1 Euro on high street
12 Dec: Sony to axe 8000 jobs and close factories
11 Dec: Jim Rodgers: 'larger banks are bankrupt, totally bankrupt'
11 Dec: US jobless claims soar to 26 year high
11 Dec: Obama unveils $1 trillion economic package
11 Dec: Shortage of physical gold as investors seek safety
11 Dec: Negative interest on safe three month treasury bills!
10 Dec: Woolworths collapse could mean 32,000 job losses
10 Dec: Rio Tinto axes 14,000 jobs to reduce debt
8 Dec: UK bank lending and bond issuance contracting at speed
5 Dec: US shed 533,000 jobs in November
5 Dec: Investment banks set to cut 30,000 jobs
3 Dec: Copper, lead and zinc prices just fell 60% from July peak
1 Dec: 20,000 uniformed troops to help state inside US by 2011
1 Dec: Withdrawals from $10bn flagship hedge fund suspended
26 Nov: $8.5 trillion already promised in attempt to stop US rot
25 Nov: US taxpayer to guarantee $300bn in Citigroup rescue
20 Nov: US jobless claims rose to a 16 year high last week
19 Nov: FTSE 100 falls 5% and hovers around 4000
17 Nov: Ex-Fed Chair Volcker warns of "broken financial system"
17 Nov: Citigroup to cut further 52,000 jobs on top of 23,000
13 Nov: BT to cut 10,000 jobs
11 Nov: Virgin Media plans 2200 job losses
8 Nov: General Motors lost $38.7bn in 2007
7 Nov: Ford reports $3bn quarterly loss and announces job cuts
7 Nov: IMF predicts 1st full year slump for West since 1940s
6 Nov: BoE slashes rates to 3% - the lowest in the UK since 1954
6 Nov: Man hedge funds shares lose 31% of value in a day
4 Nov: More than 6000 people a day are losing their jobs in Spain
3 Nov: General Motors car sales for Oct down 45% on last year
2 Nov: What Crisis? Graph shows US banks' borrowing from FED
31 Oct: October saw the worst stock market losses in 21 years
31 Oct: Barclays looking to raise £7bn fast, taps oil rich Dubai
29 Oct: West goes cap in hand to China
29 Oct: Hedge funds take £24bn hit after Porshe buys into VW
28 Oct: Bank bailouts have cost taxpayers £4473bn worldwide
27 Oct: Nikkei Index closes at 26-year low
26 Oct: Hungary, Ukraine, Serbia now queuing up for IMF rescue
25 Oct: FTSE hammered, Pound clobbered, UK economy contracting
24 Oct: Bailout $bns likely to be used for mergers & acquisitions
24 Oct: FTSE 100 falls 5%, Dax 5%, Dow Jones 4% all in a day
23 Oct: Wachovia bank posts $23.7bn quarterly loss
23 Oct: Contagion: South Korea's shares index falls 8.5% in a day
22 Oct: Britain is now in recessession says BoE's Mervyn King
21 Oct: Iceland agrees to $6bn deal with IMF
21 Oct: Government borrowing may cause fiscal tightening in 2010
17 Oct: £360bn of derivatives insuring Lehman against default due
16 Oct: FTSE 100 has fallen 23% so far this month
13 Oct: Germany and France announce 1 trillion euro bank bailout
12 Oct: HBOS and RBS to be nationalised
11 Oct: Iceland needs help fast to avert total collapse
11 Oct: Those who insured Lehman via derivatives now in trouble
10 Oct: The day £2.7 trn was wiped off the value of shares globally
10 Oct: Crisis becomes crash of type not seen since 1929
10 Oct: FTSE 100's biggest ever fall of 1047 points this week
10 Oct: Nikkei has fallen 24% in a week
10 Oct: UK Council's savings at risk in Icelandic banks
9 Oct: Iceland's government forced to take over Kaupthing
8 Oct: UK government to buy shares in UK banks ... to stop rout
8 Oct: More falls. HBOS shares just fell by 50% in two days
8 Oct: Dow Jones has just fallen 13% in a week
7 Oct: Iceland's government forced to take over Landsbanki
6 Oct: BIG falls on UK, Paris, US, Brazilian etc stock markets
5 Oct: German's 2nd biggest property lender needs £27bn fast
5 Oct: Icelandic Krona fell 27% against the dollar last week!
3 Oct: What crisis? $700bn US bailout vote passes. Markets fall.
3 Oct: California is running out of money
3 Oct: France is officially in recession
3 Oct: Greece issues blanket guarantee of all bank deposits
1 Oct: Irish government guarantees 6 banks' deposits for 2 years
30 Sep: Very rich buying up physical gold at unprecedented rate
29 Sep: Hong Kong down 4%, FTSE 100 down 5%, Dow down 9%
29 Sep: US bailout voted out, central banks inject $620bn anyway
29 Sep: Bradford & Bingley, Fortis, Glitnir & Wachovia banks failing
27 Sep: Bradford & Bingley - second UK bank to be nationalised
26 Sep: Belgian bank Fortis wants to sell £7.9bn of assets... fast
26 Sep: 150 economists urge Congress not to rush through plan
26 Sep: Washington Mutual bank is biggest US bank failure so far
26 Sep: Never has so much been asked of so many for so few
25 Sep: Ireland now officially in recession
24 Sep: China's banks told to halt lending to US banks
23 Sep: Market volatility: 3% falls in FTSE & Dow
22 Sep: Currency Hedge-Fund Chair: 'the dollar will get crushed'
21 Sep: Default by the US government is no longer unthinkable
20 Sep: Bush seeks emergency $800bn from congress / taxpayers
20 Sep: FT reports on Wall Street's Wild Week
17 Sep: Privatising profit and socialising risk - socialism for the rich
17 Sep: Worst part of the banking system is being nationalised
17 Sep: PM involved as Lloyds TSB looks to rescue HBOS
17 Sep: Morgan Stanley shares fall 40%, Goldman Sachs fall 21%
17 Sep: Moscow suspends trading - steepest falls since '98 crisis
17 Sep: Fed bails out AIG insurance with $40bn
16 Sep: FTSE 100 falls to 5000 points; HBOS shares fall by 40%
15 Sep: US' biggest Investment Bank Lehman declared bankrupt
6 Sep: Fannie & Freddie $5 trn risk to be shifted to US tax payer
5 Sep: Market volatility: 3% one day fall in world stock markets
1 Sep: 'solvency issues'- 9 US banks have failed so far in 2008
30 Aug: Economy facing 60 year low, says UK Chancellor
19 Aug: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac shares just fell 22% & 25%
15 Aug: Lehman Brothers bank trying to sell $40bn in real estate
15 Aug: Almost all rich OECD countries experiencing a downturn
8 Aug: Royal Bank of Scotland posts its first loss in 40 years
8 Aug: The history of today's credit crisis
1 Aug: First Priority Bank is the 8th US bank to fail in 2008
31 July: Commodity bubble popping? Oil just fell $20 in a month
29 July: Value of av. US house has fallen 16% over last 12 mths
24 July: The UK has outsourced its carbon emissions
22 July: 80% of respondents in poll see UK going into recession
22 July: US's 4th largest bank, Wachovia, lost $8/9bn in Q2
21 July: HBOS underwriters left with £2.5bn of unsold shares
21 July: Risks have been socialised...rewards will go to capitalists
17 July: Merrill Lynch hit by $9.4bn writedown
17 July: Spain's largest property developer is bankrupt
14 July: Fed rescues Fannie & Freddie to avert depression?
12 July: Run on US IndyMac Bank foreces Fed to take it over
12 July: UK banks have used up £50bn BoE facility & hope for more
11 July: Share crash of US institutions with £6 trn in home loans
11 July: Banks are skint! Lending has fallen off a cliff in 2008
11 July: Speed of UK house price decline now rivals 1930s?
11 July: Fannie & Freddie shares down 45% in minutes!
10 July: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac shares fall 11% & 21% in a day
8 July: RBS analyst "a very nasty period is soon to be upon us"
8 July: 2% fall this morning takes FTSE 100 into bear territory
8 July: BCC: correction may be longer and nastier than anticipated
7 July: Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac shares fall 16% & 18% in a day
4 July: FTSE 100 has fallen 19.6% since October 2007 peak
1 July: FT video on 20% fall of shares worldwide so far in 2008
28 June: Barclays Capital predicts deep global recession
28 June: Worst June since 1930s for US stocks
27 June: Sales of GM's cars running 20-40% below 2007 level
24 June: US consumer confidence hits 16 year low
18 June: RBS issues global stock and credit crash alert
16 June: CBI says UK is facing its toughest year since 1992
15 June: What crisis? Graph shows US banks' borrowing from FED
15 June: Parallel derivatives betting starving real world of cash?
9 June: 17 banks act to shore up $62trn credit default market
9 June: Lehman just sold $130bn assets & reports $2.8bn loss
7 June: Dow falls 3% in a day and oil hits $139 per barrel
6 June: US umemployed grew at highest rate in 22 yrs in May
5 June: S & P downgrades municipal bond insurers MBIA & Ambac
4 June: OECD predicts UK growth will fall to 1.4% in 2009
4 June: 1/2 of Brits think next 6 mths will be hard going
3 June: S & P downgrades undercapitalised US banks
1 June: Banks' credit crisis solutions have echoes of 1929?
29 May: UK house prices fall 2.5% in 1 month- fastest since 1991
27 May: US house prices fall 2% in 1 month- fastest fall since 30s
26 May: Soros: Britain facing worse recession of our lifetime
23 May: California home prices fell 32% in year to April
23 May: US home price index shows 3% fall in prices in Q1
22 May: Is this good? $15 trillion at stake in derivatives market
21 May: Desperation? UBS shifts debt and loses $7bn in process
17 May: Banks help Iceland after Krona falls 25% in 4 months
13 May: US foreclosures up 65% on a year ago
12 May: HSBC reports $3.2bn subprime loss
12 May: MBIA insurer reports $2.4bn loss on insured derivatives
10 May: What crisis? Graph shows US banks' borrowing from FED
9 May: Californian city of Vallejo files for bankruptcy
9 May: Citigroup to sell $400bn of assets?
7 May: Fannie Mae announces $2.2bn quarterly loss
7 May: US April business bankruptcy filings up 49% on year ago
6 May: US commercial bankruptcy filings rose 56% in April
6 May: 5500 jobs to go at UBS bank
3 May: Crisis over? Fed & ECB pump extra $82bn into system
30 Apr: Fed carries on cutting US interest rates - down to 2%
29 Apr: Gallup Poll: 59% think a depression is 'somewhat likely'
29 Apr: HBOS seeks £4bn following £2.84bn writedown
25 Apr: 23 US states report budget shortfalls
25 Apr: Construction industry anticipates mass lay offs
25 Apr: Northern Rock finalises plans to shed 2000 staff
25 Apr: Fears of major rise in Eurozone unemployment
24 Apr: Credit Suisse announces $5.2 bn asset writedown
22 Apr: 40% of companies consider layoffs, 1/3 sale of assets
22 Apr: Royal Bank of Scotland needs £12bn - discount share issue
21 Apr: Anyone buy £50bn of illiquid mortgage debt? Sure. The BoE
19 Apr: Financial crisis forces Britons into austerity?
14 Apr: US banks Citigroup & Merrill Lynch reveal new $15bn loss
11 Apr: General Electric shares fall 12% - biggest drop since '87
10 Apr: IMF: "largest financial shock since the Great Depression"
9 Apr: IMF: $1trn crisis due to poor regulation & huge risk taking
5 Apr: Soros predicts up-ending of 25 years of free market thinking
3 Apr: Fears that Icelandic banks are about to run out of cash
1 Apr: Fed charts to March 08 show scale of current variances
1 Apr: Reliance on food stamps in US at highest in decades
1 Apr: UBS bank's losses rise to $37bn dollars
31 Mar: Shares could fall 75% from peak, despite rallies
30 Mar: 10 of the most important economic events of last 10 years
30 Mar: Fund manager's extravagance starting to ring hollow
30 Mar: Investors pull $100bn out of equity funds in 3 months
27 Mar: Fed tries to resuscitate mortgage backed securities
27 Mar: Bids for emergency cash 3x the BoE's £13bn offer
24 Mar: $516 trillion in derivatives is a disaster waiting to happen
22 Mar: 1927 - 1933: What the 'experts' said at the time...
22 Mar: Losses mean Sovereign Wealth Funds may lose appetite
20 Mar: Bids for emergency cash 4x more than ECB's €15bn offer
19 Mar: Investor panic leading to freefall $ - 'worryingly plausible'
19 Mar: Shares in Halifax Bank of Scotland fall 17% in a day
18 Mar: Not since 1930s has Fed felt this kind of action necessary
18 Mar: Fed cuts interest rates again, this time by 0.75%
18 Mar: The financial crisis: How bad is it?
17 Mar: A lack of trust spells crisis in any language
17 Mar: Sterling falls 2% against basket of currencies in one day
17 Mar: Bids for emergency cash 5x higher than BoE's £5bn offer
17 Mar: FTSE 100 falls 4%, Dax 4%, Hang Seng 5%, Sensex 5%
17 Mar: Bear Stearns sold for 1/100th of its 2007 valuation price
17 Mar: Yen hits 12 year high against dollar
16 Mar: Wall Street fears for next Great Depression
31 Jan: What crisis? Graph shows US banks' borrowing from FED

Related Graphs Extra:

Graph: This joke isn't funny anymore. An identikit 1930s stock market bottom would require these kind of movements in major share indexes over time.

Graph: The outlook for demand and supply of oil and its derivatives from a US Department of Energy presentation of April 2009 called 'Meeting the World's Demand for Liquid Fuels'.

Graph: Demand for bulk container ships isn't what it was.

Graph: Six measures of the severity of the first phase of the crisis compared to previous recessions. From page 13, Chapter 1 of the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) Crisis and Recovery Report of April 2009.


Graph: They'll save/invest so that we can spend/consume. Or will they? China might have other plans. In 2009 it proved necessary to employ 'quantitative easing' to shore up wavering demand for government bonds in the US/UK. China reduced holdings in Dec 09.

Graph: IMF's 2009 WEO forecast. Developing economies to rebalance whilst rich economy governments borrow more to defer the pain.

Graph: Dow Jones from its 1929 peak, compared to recent movement in this US share index. Compare the % fall of the first leg down and % rise of the first leg back up in each case. It's uncanny. So, is today a similar calamity in slow motion... or a similar calamity on fast forward with the worst bits cut out? TBC

Graph: US disposable income. Consumer spending is estimated to be responsible for between 40% to 70% of US economic activity.

Graph: UK cumulative unemployment climbing

Graph: US cumulative unemployment climbing

Graph: US 'growth' in employment during months following pre-recession peak compared to previous recessions.



Graph: The current US downturn, plotted from Dec 2007, will be longer than average


Graph: The number of US lending institutions in potential distress. Based on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's watch list. The FDIC is tasked with insuring US citizen's deposits and savings.

Graph: Excessive banker salaries as a predictor of depression?

Graph: World industrial production from 1929, compared to 2008 as set out with other many telling graphs in A tale of two depressions

Graph: Dow Jones Share Index 1920-1940, click for detail.
Following the 1929 crash, the market enjoyed numerous
rallies before finding bottom at the value it had been at
around 18 years earlier.

Graph: Dow Jones Share Index 1900-date, click for detail.
The 1929 crash made a serious dent.

Graph: Historical price of gold. It previously peaked with the high oil prices brought about by the 1979 oil crisis (the Shah was ousted from Iran. Iraq, supported by the US/UK, then invaded Iran, hitting oil production and causing wide spread panic over supply).

Graph: FTSE 100 - going tits up?

Related Viewing Extra: